The housing market entered the second half of 2026 with home sales modestly ahead of last year, but rising mortgage rates and the Federal Reserve’s next moves could influence activity in the months ahead.

According to the July 2026 Compass National Insights Report, home sales through the end of June were approximately 4% higher than during the same period in 2025. While that reflects continued buyer activity, mortgage rates have recently climbed into the upper 6% range, their highest levels in about a year. If borrowing costs remain elevated, buyer demand may begin to slow.

Key Trends in the July Report

Mortgage rates are back in focus

Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve and the possibility of additional interest-rate increases in 2026. Although mortgage rates do not move in direct lockstep with the Fed’s short-term rate decisions, expectations surrounding inflation and monetary policy can affect borrowing costs and buyer confidence.

The labor market remains an important factor

Unemployment remains low, while hiring has shown signs of modest improvement. Stronger job growth could support housing demand later this year, particularly in markets that benefit from employment-driven relocations.

Financially secure homeowners continue to shape the market

Many American homeowners remain in a strong financial position, supported by accumulated equity and relatively low mortgage debt. This may help prevent widespread distressed selling, even as affordability remains challenging for some buyers.

Stock-market wealth is influencing select luxury markets

Record stock-market levels have created a noticeable wealth effect in certain areas. The report highlights unusually competitive conditions in San Francisco, where Compass counted 44 June home sales that closed at least $1 million above the asking price. This activity appears highly concentrated and should not be viewed as representative of every luxury market.

What This Means for Southwest Florida

National headlines provide valuable context, but real estate remains highly local. Naples, Bonita Springs, Estero, Marco Island and neighboring communities can experience different trends depending on location, price range, property type, inventory and seasonal demand.

For Southwest Florida buyers, a higher-rate environment makes it especially important to compare financing options, ownership costs and negotiating opportunities. For sellers, accurate pricing, property preparation and a strong marketing strategy will be essential as buyers become more selective.

Explore the Complete July 2026 Report

The full Compass National Insights Report includes additional information about homeowner finances, home-price trends, inventory and the outlook for the remainder of 2026.

View the July 2026 National Insights Report →

Wondering how these national trends relate to your property or plans in Southwest Florida? Contact Bowers Group for a local market conversation tailored to your community, price range and goals.

Dennis “Denny” Bowers
Principal, Bowers Group at Compass
239.272.6917
dennis.bowers@compass.com